Should I just apply?

I would wait for your friend to get an offer first, and then let them refer you in. If your friend is able to get an offer, it will at least signal to the engineering team that their referral (you) meets a certain expectation. They'll use your friend as a proxy for interview performance.

How much of a rush are you in? If you have other opportunities, I'd wait, but it's hard to say without knowing the opportunity cost.

When you say your friend can refer you if he gets an offer, he'd have to wait until he actually joins the company, right? So that could take weeks/months.

And even once he gets in, the referral will help, but it won't magically elevate your profile. The strength of the referral depends on:

• How well does this person know you?
• How senior is this person?

Your friend who just joined won't be senior, but hopefully they can put in a strong referral.

This feels like a micro-optimization. The opinion of a newbie won't hold too much weight for a referral. Also, your friend needs to do the following:

1. Get the offer
2. Accept the offer
3. Start the job

1-3 is not guaranteed and it could take a long time. I think you can just apply and mention that your friend is also in the loop and supposedly doing well.

You could wait if the company is smaller and you think headcount will still be open in 1-2 months. Otherwise it feels risky. For juniors, you just need to apply often and apply early in this market.

Thanks everyone for the various perspectives, helps a lot. Think I’m just gonna apply and go for it. If I get rejected at the resume screen stage I will just try again if and when my friend gets in. Thanks Charlie, Alex and Rahul!!