Not Bullish on Company - Does it Matter?
Other than company future, I'm very happy in my current role.
Have a great manager, good WLB, strong compensation, will likely get promoted soon, brand name of company is strong, really like the work, am learning a lot.
However, I don't see the bull case for the company. Stock has not recovered from the post-COVID drop (down ~80% from peak), and it's increasingly unclear how we would rebound.
How much should I weigh the actual company performance and future stock trajectory (as I see it) vs the otherwise great things? Of course, I could also be misreading the trajectory of the company.
![Senior Software Engineer [E5] at Meta company logo](/_next/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Ftech-career-growth.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fcompany_logos%252Fmeta.jpeg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Da7a5bcc0-e178-4b5b-b71e-09bf6c6aefae&w=48&q=75){kind=small}
![Entry-Level Software Engineer [L3] at Google company logo](/_next/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Ftech-career-growth.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fcompany_logos%252Fgoogle.jpeg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D780356ef-3efc-4728-9eb4-d909b75bb4a6&w=48&q=75){kind=small}
Discussion
(2 comments)- 2a month agoTech Lead/Manager at Meta, Pinterest, Kosei
Totally fine if you're not bullish on the company, as long as you're getting value in other ways:
- You're getting a promo that will be respected at other companies. Sounds like you're almost mid-level now, so that's a good reason to stay.
- You're building your reputation and network among coworkers who will go on to do interesting things.
- You're enjoying your life :)
The other thing to keep in mind is that your refresh stock grants will likely be priced at the lower stock price of the company. (See [Masterclass] Understanding And Optimizing Your Pay In Tech.) So if the company does recover to the original peak at some point, that equity grant will be very valuable, increasing 5x in value!
- 0a month agoEng @ Taro
However, I don't see the bull case for the company. Stock has not recovered from the post-COVID drop (down ~80% from peak), and it's increasingly unclear how we would rebound.
It might be worth the effort to spend 1-2 hours one day to think about whether there are temporary headwinds causing the drop or whether there's an existential crisis happening. Some questions to ask yourself:
- Is there some new technology (like AI) that would disrupt the business?
- Is there a competitor that's been seeing enormous growth that would take away from your company's market share?
- Or, is there a temporary issue in the market that's affecting the company, but it's something that can be solved or will not be a problem in a few years
I would take a measured approach to evaluate the above and try not to be too reactionary.
If you do feel like there's an existential crisis, you can treat your equity as cash and cash out at every opportunity to invest in companies with more optimistic outlooks. This way, you get the best of both worlds, you can continue to enjoy your role in your current company, but you can also benefit from the growth of other companies.
If it's a temporary headwind and you have faith that the company will rebound, it might be worth it to hold on to your equity. I've seen companies that were in ruts go 3x, 4x, 5x, but it's usually because they were not priced fairly.
