I'm an L3 software engineer that been working for a bit over 1 year. During this time, I've had three managers and am about to get a fourth that will be hired externally.
I did not have great experiences with my past two managers. The team was also a bit of mess during that time (we would have oncall rotations that would average ~100-200 pages/week, 60+ page hours). I have a strong working relationship with my current manager and the team situation is better.
We had discussed putting me up for promotion this past July, but that didn't materialize due to concerns about time at level and shipped impact. I was a bit disappointed but understood. However, I did receive Exceeds ratings and was been told that I am performing above my level.
The current plan is to put up my promotion packet in the next cycle. I was operating under the expectation that, barring unforeseen circumstances, this should go through.
Additionally, the company has been planning to hire an external manager that would report to my current manager for the past ~3-4 months. I expect that this position will be filled by end of year. I expressed concern about context loss for the January promotion packet, but my manager assured me that he would ensure the packet put up was strong and all context would be written by him personally.
However, recently my manager has been hinting concerns that the packet may not go through in the next cycle and we may want to think about creating a strong packet in the cycle following.
I am concerned about my promotion not going through in January and having to rely on an external manager (who I don't know and who doesn't know company processes) to put up a packet in the next cycle. I believe I've demonstrated my ability to execute and perform at L4 level for many months at this point already, shipped some meaningful and high impact projects, and feel that I should be promoted in the next cycle.
I trust and really like my current manager, but I want to communicate these concerns in a professional way. How should I do this?
Additionally, should I also start to look externally? I'm quite confident in my Leetcode/interview skills, have a Tier-1 school on my resume, and work at a FAANG tier company currently, but I understand the market is bad. Would it be possible to get an L4 level role externally now or in the next six months?